Polestar Cuts 2026 Growth Outlook — Estimates $130 Million in U.S. Adjustments Tied to BIS Decision

Polestar cut its 2026 volume-growth outlook to low-to-mid single digits, down from the low double-digit growth it had previously guided for this year.¹²³ In the same Sept. 3 results release, Polestar estimates that about $130 million of negative adjustments related to its U.S. operations arose as a result of the Bureau of Industry and Security decision that reshaped its U.S. new-vehicle business.¹

That $130 million is the most direct new accounting figure Polestar has attached to the federal decision. The company says the adjustments primarily involve residual-value-guarantee costs, reductions in the net realizable value of U.S. inventory, and restructuring provisions involving employees and suppliers or partners.¹

Polestar separately estimates that its U.S. operations increased both its consolidated operating loss and its consolidated net loss by approximately $211 million each in the first half of 2026.¹ The company explicitly says those calculations involve significant judgment and subjectivity.¹

The $130 million and $211 million figures should not be added together. The $130 million describes a set of negative adjustments Polestar says arose from the BIS decision, while the $211 million figures are the company's broader estimates of how much U.S. operations increased each H1 loss measure.¹

The adjusted results moved in the wrong direction

Polestar reported 17,296 Q2 retail sales, down 4.0% from a year earlier, while quarterly revenue fell 8.1% to $727 million.¹ Its adjusted gross margin was -13.1%, compared with -5.6% in Q2 2025, and adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $286 million from $206 million.¹

The headline GAAP loss comparison looks better, but it needs an important caveat. Q2 net loss narrowed to $459 million from $1.027 billion a year earlier, a 55.3% improvement on the reported figure, but Polestar says the 2025 quarter included a $724 million net impairment expense.¹ That makes the year-over-year GAAP change a poor shorthand for underlying operating improvement, especially while adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA deteriorated.

For the full first half, Polestar reported $1.360 billion of revenue, down 4.4% year over year. Adjusted gross margin fell to -8.5% from +1.4%, adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $521 million from $302 million, and the company reported approximately $888 million in cash at June 30.¹

The U.S. exit itself is not new

Polestar announced on June 25 that BIS had not granted the specific authorization it sought under the U.S. Connected Vehicle Rule for model-year 2027 and later sales.⁴ The company said it would continue selling previous-model-year vehicles from existing U.S. inventory before ceasing new-vehicle sales, while continuing to support existing customers through its service network.⁴

That regulatory outcome was already public, and our August coverage focused on why Polestar's comparison with Volvo did not reveal the confidential reason for the different authorization outcomes. The new development is that Polestar's H1 results now put company-estimated financial numbers around the U.S. restructuring while also lowering the full-year growth outlook.

Polestar says the revised 2026 guidance reflects first-half performance and its portfolio transition, including the current Polestar 2 approaching the end of its lifecycle and the Polestar 4 SUV launching in the fourth quarter, against what it describes as a highly competitive and volatile market environment.¹ That is the company's explanation for the outlook change; the release does not establish the BIS decision as the sole cause of the guidance cut.

The U.S. accounting impact is also not finished. Polestar says further negative adjustments should be expected as the restructuring proceeds, including additional personnel and inventory costs, but it has not put a figure on those future adjustments.¹

Sources

Footnotes

1. Polestar Reports Second Quarter Select and H1 2026 Financial Results — Polestar, distributed via Business Wire, Sept. 3, 2026. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260903500553/en/ Company-issued unaudited results establishing current 2026 volume-growth guidance, Q2/H1 financial and operational figures, the approximately $130 million BIS-related U.S. adjustment estimate, the approximately $211 million estimated H1 effect of U.S. operations on operating and net loss, the stated adjustment categories, and the warning of further restructuring adjustments. Polestar expressly says the U.S.-operations calculations involve significant judgment and subjectivity; adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP measures. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸ ↩⁹ ↩¹⁰ ↩¹¹ ↩¹²

2. Polestar starts largest model offensive in its history: four new cars in three years — Polestar, Feb. 18, 2026. https://investors.polestar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/polestar-starts-largest-model-offensive-its-history-four-new Establishes Polestar's earlier expectation for low double-digit 2026 retail-volume growth. ↩

3. Polestar reports fourth quarter select and full-year 2025 financial results — Polestar, Apr. 17, 2026. https://investors.polestar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/polestar-reports-fourth-quarter-select-and-full-year-2025 Establishes the April reiteration of Polestar's low-double-digit 2026 volume-growth outlook. ↩

4. Polestar strengthens its focus on Europe following decision under the U.S. Connected Vehicle Rule — Polestar, June 25, 2026. https://investors.polestar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/polestar-strengthens-its-focus-europe-following-decision-under Establishes Polestar's public announcement that BIS did not grant its authorization for model-year 2027-and-later U.S. sales, as well as its stated plan to sell remaining existing inventory and continue customer/service support. It does not disclose BIS's confidential reasoning. ↩ ↩²